Tag: stock market
Staying the Course During Market Volatility
April 8, 2025by Ron Bare
Along with most Americans, we’ve been watching closely as President Donald Trump declared April 2nd to be “Liberation Day” and implemented broader tariffs than anticipated by economic watchdogs and television pundits. These tariffs, which include a 10% duty on all imports to the U.S. and meaningfully higher rates for some countries in particular, have had an immediate negative impact on the markets and led to concerns about a potential recession and increased market instability.
As always in times of such volatility, it’s natural to feel anxious about your investments. The rapid swings in stock prices can stir emotions, but it’s essential to remember that historically markets have demonstrated resilience over the long term, even in the face of policy-induced volatility.
J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s oft-quoted research illustrates the importance of staying invested through turbulent periods. In one study, they analyzed the performance of a $10,000 investment in the S&P 500 between January 2004 and December 2023. If the investor stayed fully invested, the average annual return was 10.4%. However, missing just the 10 best days during that period cut the return to 6.1%. Missing the 20 best days dropped it further to 3.5% (see the data here). The impact of being out of the market for even a few key days—most of which tend to occur during periods of heightened volatility—can be dramatic.
“The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient” – Warren Buffett.
As the ‘Oracle of Omaha’ reminds us in the above quote, it’s important to keep in mind the psychological impact of market volatility. Behavioral finance studies suggest that the pain of losses often feels more intense than the pleasure of gains—a concept known as loss aversion. This can lead to panic selling, which often locks in losses and prevents investors from participating in subsequent market recoveries. Staying focused on your long-term goals and resisting the urge to make hasty decisions can help you avoid these pitfalls.
While this is the largest wave of American tariffs since President Hoover signed the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act in 1930, it’s essential for us to maintain a long-term perspective. Reacting in fear or attempting to time the market during such periods can lead to missed opportunities and diminished returns. By staying the course and focusing on your long-term investment objectives, you position yourself to navigate through this volatility more effectively. Please see below for helpful graphic information on the value of staying the course.
As always, our team is here to support you in aligning your investment strategy with your financial goals, helping you navigate these uncertain times. Be on the lookout for additional communications and resources from our office in the coming days. In the meantime, we are available to talk if you’d like to reach out and discuss anything on your mind.
Nothing New Under the Sun
April 5, 2023by Ron Bare
Perhaps the most common mistake made when making investment decisions is making ANY investment decision outside the context of a written financial plan based on your goals and values. That is why Bare Wealth Advisors does not create investment portfolios for our clients without a plan.
Without a plan we are left to the news headlines and predictions from all the market “experts” – most of which are fear driven. Fear is a good salesperson, and financial journalism is guilty of “selling” the headline that will generate the most clicks. We believe wealth is ultimately a resource entrusted to us to maximize the impact and calling God has given us. We should never succumb to fear headlines and financial journalism’s goal of making short term investment decisions based on what the market may do over the next few months.
As Ecclesiastes tells us, “nothing is new under the sun.” Over the past year we have seen the following: war, inflation, rising interest rates, recession fears, supply chain constraints, and most recently the failure of Silicon Vally Bank (a tech focused bank which had heavy losses the past year). All this on top of coming out of a closed economy due to the Covid 19 pandemic, can be exhausting and emotional – however, none of these are “new under the sun!” We live in an uncertain world and one benefit of a financial plan is to help you plan for what we call the “certainty of uncertainty”.
Our advice is and always will be the same – think long term, diversify, minimize debt, live generously, live within your means, and create a tailored financial plan based on the individual values, purpose, and goals your family has established. However, in the meantime let me share a few thoughts regarding our current economic state.
There has been much discussion recently regarding the cause of the inflation we have been experiencing. Basic economics tell us that when you create too much of something the value of that something is reduced. The total M2 (money supply – or simply just think money in all bank accounts) increased by 40% during a two-year window of the pandemic. (Over $6 Trillion!) For perspective, the normal increase in M2 is about 6% per year. It does not take a rocket scientist to figure out this may reduce the value of money (the definition of inflation). The good news (of course nobody is focusing on any good news) is that M2 has decreased over the past 12 months and many leading indicators are showing that inflation is subsiding. It will take some time, but inflation is heading in the right direction – lower!
Remember, even though some indicators show inflation is declining, it is always challenging to predict what will happen in the “short-term.” More importantly, short term is not where we or you should focus. We are long term planners focused on the impact your resources can help you make over the next 10, 20 or 30 years!
As I wrap up these thoughts, I would like to encourage us all to make sure we receive the proper “inputs.” Begin with the NEVER changing word of God (Bible), understand the principles of truth and ask for wisdom to apply them to your life. Then surround yourself with advisors that know and care about you, listen to you and share your values, and can help you discern how to apply wisdom to the vision and impact God is calling you and your family to make – in this short life we have been privileged to live. Thank you for allowing us at Bare Wealth Advisors to be one of your trusted advisors, we are honored!
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